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Rheumatology 2000; 39: 1316-1319
© 2000 British Society for Rheumatology

Prognostic parameters for flare in systemic lupus erythematosus

M. J. Mirzayan, R. E. Schmidt and T. Witte

Abteilung Klinische Immunologie, Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, Carl-Neuberg-Strasse 1, D-30625 Hannover, Germany

Objective. To characterize prognostic parameters for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares.

Methods. In a prospective study, 120 SLE patients attending our out-patient clinic were evaluated every 3 months for 2 yr. At every visit clinical manifestations and laboratory parameters were assessed and the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI) was determined. A correlation analysis of the number of flares in the first year and SLEDAI as a marker of disease activity after 1 and 2 yr with several parameters determined at the start of the study was performed.

Results. Flares were predicted by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (P=0.001), anaemia (P=0.006) and lymphopenia (P=0.005). The SLEDAI after 1 yr was predicted by the titre of antinuclear antibodies (P=0.009), antibodies against double-stranded DNA (P=0.007), lymphopenia (P=0.007), anaemia (P=0.0002) and SLEDAI determined at the start of the study (P=0.001).

Conclusions. Anaemia and lymphopenia predict both flares and SLEDAI within the next year of follow-up.

KEY WORDS: SLE, Flares, SLEDAI, Prognosis.

Correspondence to: T. Witte, Abteilung Klinische Immunologie, Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, Carl-Neuberg-Strasse 1, D-30625 Hannover, Germany.


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